Tram Town
Friday, July 02, 2004
Category: Climatology This quote is from page 774 (chapter 14) of Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible [my emphasis]. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased computer resources [my emphasis, again] and the application of new methods of model diagnosis. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive, but such statistical information is essential.Paraphrased: The day may come in the future when we can have a guess about human effects on the climate but it will require serious computing power which we don't currently have! Think for a moment about how much money has been spent on the IPCC to conclude that we know very little at this stage of the possible existence of a threat of unknown proportion. This is the same IPCC, you will remember, whose chairman called Bjørn Lomborg a nazi. Oh, and by the way, the IPCC is a UN body. Thanks to the folks at Bizarre Science for the location of the quote. |